US Stock Market - Trump Signals "Early End to War" - Short-term Forecast (April 1 – 1st Week of April): High Probability of Upward Trend
### 1. Current US Stock Market Situation (As of market close on March 30)
- **S&P 500**: 6,343.72 (-0.39%, down 7.9% over the past month, -9% from the year-to-date high)
- **Dow Jones**: 45,216.14 (+0.1%)
- **Nasdaq**: 20,794.64 (-0.73%, correction deepening centered on tech stocks)
Over the past 3–4 weeks, oil prices surged to $100–$107 due to **concerns over the Iran war + blockade of the Strait of Hormuz** → Weakness for 5 consecutive weeks due to fears of reignited inflation + risk aversion (Nasdaq entered correction territory).
### 2. The Most Important Latest Catalyst: Trump Signals "Early End to War" (WSJ Report, March 30)
- President Trump told his aides that he is **"willing to halt military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed."**
- Key objectives (neutralizing the Iranian navy + reducing missile stockpiles) have already been achieved → possibility of ending within 4–6 weeks.
→ **US futures surged** immediately after this news
- S&P 500 futures +0.8–1%
- Nasdaq 100 futures +1%
- Dow futures +0.8–1%
- Oil prices (WTI/Brent) actually fell (risk premium removed)
### 3. Short-term Forecast (April 1 – 1st Week of April): **High probability of rise (expectation of rebound)**
- **Early trading on April 1 (Tue):** Very high probability of a **rising start**.
- Futures are already up 0.7–1% overnight. - Easing of geopolitical risks → Oil price stabilization → Expected buying inflow into tech and growth stocks (semiconductors and AI).
- **Overall 1st Week of April**: Possibility of a +2–4% rebound (S&P attempting to recover the 6,400–6,500 level).
- Reason: Relief sentiment that the “worst-case scenario” regarding the Hormuz risk has been avoided + demand for April option expiration (rollover).
- Technically, rebound patterns have frequently appeared in the recent oversold zone (Nasdaq correction).
**Linkage with the Korean Stock Market**: US rally + Inclusion of Korean government bonds in the WGBI (World Government Bond Index) on April 1 (expected inflow of 70–90 trillion KRW) = Could serve as **additional upward momentum for semiconductors (Samsung and SK Hynix)**.
** ### 4. Mid-term Forecast (April – First Half of 2026): **Upward Trend Maintained, but Volatility High**
- **Wall Street Consensus (Year-end 2026 S&P Target)**:
- Average 7,500–7,650 (Upside potential of +18–20% from current levels)
- Goldman Sachs 7,600 / Morgan Stanley 7,800 / JPMorgan 7,200 (Recently downgraded)
- Supported by the AI supercycle + corporate earnings growth (13–15% expected) + expectations for a Fed interest rate cut.
- **Positive Factors**
- If the war ends early, oil prices will stabilize below $80 → Inflation easing + Increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut in June
- Continued demand for AI and semiconductors ("Winner-take-all" market in 2026).
- **Risk Factors (Downward Scenario)**
- Iran's refusal → Re-blockade of Hormuz → Oil prices rise again to $110+ → Possibility of an additional 5–7% correction.
- Increased volatility if high exchange rates and dividend repatriation occur in April, plus sluggish US economic indicators (employment and inflation).
### Summary Table
Period
Expected Direction
Expected Range
Key Catalysts
April 1–1st Week
Rise
+2–4%
Trump de-escalation + Oil price stabilization
April Total
Rise Dominance
+3–6% (Rebound)
Easing of geopolitical risks
First Half of 2026
Rise Trend
+8–12% (Year-end Target)
AI + Earnings Growth
**Conclusion**:
**In the short term, the weight is on the rise (rebound).** Trump's "willingness to end the war early" is highly likely to be a game changer.